The Political Dogfight

Republican Campbell wins CA-48 on Absentee Ballots...not live vote...

Well, it's all over in the CA-48 until the November General Elections. John Campbell flew to Washington DC the next morning, moved into a townhouse previously picked out and then promptly got lost going to the Capitol the next morning, thereby getting held up in traffic, to be sworn in and arrived late for his session.

I bet Speaker Hastert was just peachy thrilled. Good thing Tom Delay was in Texas in trial so he couldn't promptly put a clamp on his balls and lead him to his former office as House Enforcer.

The Empty-Shirt, Used Car Guy arrives in style. <sigh>.....Only from Orange County....

The Details (as if you haven't heard):
Campbell 45,719
Young     28,432
Gilchrist 25,979
Tiritilli     1,409 (Green)
Cohen        963 (Libertarian)
(The Fact a Green beat a Libertarian in this miserably low turnout race could be a good sign for them.)
23% Turnout, only 8.6% actually at the polls.

The Facts:
I unfortunately left my detailed notes home from the night of the vote as I write this, however, on the first vote release ( absentee and early vote only) Campbell got slighly over 30,000 votes and Steve Young nearly 15,000 votes. I was joyous! Steve only got 7941 votes in the entire Primary on Oct 4 so nearly doubling his Primary vote with just Absentee votes was a good omen.

Each time a Live Precinct Vote was released Campbell's lead was cut and his percentage of lead was reduced. Hope was high at the Election night party where I was trying to keep track of the vote by the moment and liveblog the vote at both DailyKos and MyDD. Trying to do all three was a mistake.

Gary Boatwright, well-known from MYdd, showed up, a truly good man, and I should have commandered another laptop and put him into The Big Dog's Live Blogging.....TBD was screwing the pooch. My posts weren't up to my own standards.

In the end, Campbell took the deal. End of the story...no tricks, no gimmicks...no election fraud...he just won. BUT HOW?

It was all in his Absentee Ballot total. The other Strategists and I, or so we thought we were and were called so behind closed doors by the Candidate, were puzzled by the fact Campbell became a ghost in the last two weeks of the campaign. We knew easily enough he was afraid of opening his mouth and losing votes. That was obvious enough. He's a terrible public speaker when he has to respond on his feet.

But why did his commericals disappear? What about most of his signs?

We realized the day after the Election he was 100% banking on those Absentee Ballots and once the day past when you could file for a new Absentee Ballot he vanished! Smart move on his part. He didn't alienate a one of them and even picked up a couple of thousand.

Based on Live Votes alone, Congressman John Campbell finished LAST!

A moral?  Listen...the game was in the absentee ballots. And it could be in your District. What District? School Board, Water District, State Assembly, State Senate, Congress...you name it.

When you base your election chances on an Absentee Ballot strategy you have an Election Period lasting weeks. Your opponent has a single Election Day!

Think about it.

John Campbell may be, and is, an Empty-Shirt, Rubber-Stamp Republican that has a hard time learning to take a breath when he speaks....but he knows how to hire smart consultants. And that is a talent. And they kicked ass this time. The voters of the CA-48 will see about next.

This lesson is applicable in any state in any race. Think about it!  TBD...on to other races and projects....and, for now, a lot of rest and recuperation. I will try to post daily even though I am essentially resting.

Steve Young has more than a long shot at CA-48

Yesterday, DavidNYC, from SwingStateProject put the race on the frontpage of DailyKos and at last count before DKos crashed we had 128 comments. Of course the crash had to happen while we were red hot! :))

One of the solid House analyst's is Superribbie [This won't be available until dKos is back up] and his analysis of the race, based on pure mathematics, (assuming a voting pattern similar to the Primary), showed  us coming in with 41%, Campbell 39% and Gilchrist 20%.

My personal analysis is a little different as I think Gilchrist will score better changing the numbers. But we are on TV this weekend and Monday/Tuesday as well as having our live figures, like on the website, in the OC Register! Those figures drive a tremendous amount of traffic to the site.

What do we need today, Saturday? We need even more cash. While the last FEC report hasn't showed the Net contributions, which have really poured in the last 11 days, the more we can raise this weekend the more confident we are in increasing our Media (TV and Newspaper) buys right up to 8 PM Tuesday when the polls close! So whether the cash can reach us that fast isn't the issue. The issue is that the cash is in the pipeline!

So dig deep readers and do your best to support this worthy candidate with your hard earned money.

PS: We have put on the front page of our website the world's first 'Live Q & A Window' for those that have questions. Manned only by senior staff, this is a way to get your questions, or those of an associate, answered in real time. Think of it as 'Live One on One Blogging'! And it's the world's first on any Political Website. Give it a try right now. The window is open...

PPS: My fellow Bloggers: RUN WITH THIS STORY! Please. The greater reach we get the more Virtual Phone Bankers, see diaries at MyDD or Dkos, the more cash, the more volunteers we can get at the last minute! And we need them all.

CA-48th: w/vids...why Dems Can't afford to quit on CA-48

CA-48, as you know, is a Special Election with it's final election on Dec. 6th only 20 days away. Many Democrats, especially in the District after years of Republican indoctrination, have drunk the Republican Kool-Aid. They don't believe their vote counts.

Well, their vote not only counts but this one time can make the difference in this tiny turnout election.(Likely less than 21%) In the district Steve Young, the nominee, has been beating the drums long and loud. And he's gaining ground. But most of you have never seen or heard him.

We will change that today. Here are three short video clips on issues and one long video from last night's debate with  Rubber Stamp John Campbell and two other candidates.

Remember Campbell was at Darth Vader Cheney's fundraiser for him the night before! (All of these are streaming video without long downloads.) Click here and make your choice of what to watch.

Watch and meet the candidate as you did Paul Hackett! And get motivated to support CA-48 and Steve Young as you did Paul Hackett.
(Much more on the flip)

CA-48th: 29 days...and Still fighting to Win....

Steve Young and staff may be the only ones working on the race this next two days as the California Statewide Special Election, where we expect to bloody Gov. Muscles nose, is tomorrow. The Unions, Teachers, Activists of all sorts are full time on that election until 8 PM tomorrow night. There is a good chance The Gov will be embarrassed right out of the race for '06.

Regardless of that reality, we've been busy virtually every day. Our ground campaign has been hitting the streets into high propensity Democratic neigborhoods to drive the turnout up, the Candidate has 3-5 events a day where he speaks and picks up support everytime. We have innovative technology to deploy after the Statewide election.This is new, different and never seen before. It may make the difference. It will certainly be noticed.

CA-48: Indictments,Crooks and Enough is Enough

Enough is Enough!

Scooter Libby,not only directly connected to the Veep but also not well reported a special assistant to the President, is headed to the Slams. The Veep is under investigation. Rove is not only under investigation but is forming his own legal team and has retained a PR firm from Colorado that is expert in crisis management.

Tom Delay apparently has a hair stylist, makeup artist and smile coach for his arraignment mug-shot and acts as if he is still in charge of the House of Representatives.

Senator Bill Frist, a Doctor, makes diagnosis via video and now has a 'blind' trust whose Trustee's report directly to him at least once. And he's under investigation.

CA-48th: Two Weeks Until The Final Push

In the CA-48th the final push for victory will come starting November 9. That's the day after Gov. Muscles Statewide Special Election that is filled with toxic proposistions.

Until that is over the Unions, the Democratic Clubs, the volunteer base that we would rely on are fully engaged in a war, and I do mean war over that election. After that is over it is our hope that the SEIU, The Unions in general and our Democratic  Base can immediately suck in a little more oxygen and give us at least 1000 volunteer days in 3 weeks. Break that apart and that's about 350 vols a week so not that many a day on a 3-4 hours schedule especially since so many will take more than one shift over the three week period.

Since this blog is regularly visited by the competition forgive me if I don't layout in detail the entire plan beyond the above portion...and it is just a portion that does not include the media, debates, mailings and other things.

There was a diary on dKos today asking for questions for DNC Chair Governor Dean. Apparently the poster was in a function with the Governor and was solicting good questions to ask. Mine was more specific to this campaign:

Why are you not supporting the last

Congressional race in the US, the CA-48 in Newport Beach California? Without Party support it is difficult at best.

The '50 State Strategy' takes on a  different meaning when a Candidate that won his primary, has Union endorsements, national endorsement from Progressive Democrats of America, Teachers for Excellance and many others can't get any Party support.

Just a question...not a judgement.

Governor Dean has done a great job and I'm sure this would be the first he's heard of the race.

And this question is honestly asked. I sincerely doubt the Governor has ever been directly involved in any of the decision making about the race. Yet the lack of support for a Candidate, while not perfect, who is willing to spend his own money, throw himself into the race with such gusto and gather such Democratic support throughout the District who is still essentially ignored by the Party establishment brings into doubt the supposed '50 State Strategy'.

We fight for the win. For those who read this we honestly ask for your financial support. We need that last mailing, that last unusual tactic to overcome the Republican Machine we face in this race.

We won't give up. We ask the Blogsphere not to give up on us either.

PS: For those of you near or in the District on October 25 you can meet and greet the candidate, Steve Young, at the Patrick Henry Club.

CA-48th: An Open Question for ALL!

Ok. Here's a brainstrom. Now that we are in a General Election there is more conflict between the limited field. Realistically, that's Steve Young (D), John Campbell (R) and Jim Gilchrist (AIP).

[Note before you write-off Gilchrist,  know that today he is having a $1000 per person fundraiser abroad one of the Tall Ships around here for a day of seagoing etc. And he'll sell it out is my guess. I'll let you know.]

If we were to change message at all, assuming you've been watching our message, what would you like to see? Check the website, Steve Young for Congress, to get a feel for his core platform on issues, then tell us how you would approach the coming General Election where the Three Frontrunners have to confront their differences more directly.

All responses will be taken seriously if written that way. Thanks.

CA-48th: The Real News

Well, the CA-48th has settled into a three period waiting for the November 8th statewide elections.  Everyone in the 48th is trying their best to help do the work necessary on the November 8th election and still help CA-48 and Steve Young and it's hard on everyone!  Our army will pick up dramatically after the Statewide General Election is finished and the Governor's effort is defeated.

Yesterday Governor Muscles started his official GOTV effort in OC and Steve Young was out front with the Firefighters, Police unions and other labor groups protesting with signs and shouts.

But the most amazing piece of info from this mornings article about the Statewide General Special Election was that even Muscles was only predicting a 30% turnout! With the tens of millions that both sides have already spent on this race I thought it would be much higher than that.

This makes my own prediction for Dec 6th (the Final General Election for Ca-48th) of 18%, down from the 22% of the Oct 4th Primary, seem realistic...not just wishful. Election fatigue is a reality. Our efforts through phonebanking on absentee ballots registration are extremely important.

If we can move a relative handful of our 108K Democratic Base and the 75K Indy base...much less pick up the Republican women that won't vote for the Republican because he's Anti-Choice....We can win this race!

We need you good Democrats and Independents to work hard to defeat those damn propositions but not forget the hard work of Steve Young, his volunteers and give generously as you can. As all of you already know, everything we do costs money.

All of us know this isn't the easiest time to be a Democrat in California. We are faced with huge money and an enormous machine both on Nov 8th and Dec 6th.

But remember that the modern Democratic Party was born in the struggle of the Union movement when getting to the negotiating table was done with physical fighting, blood and broken bones. What we do today is nothing compared to what was done by those brave people a generation or two before us.

Work hard and never, ever give up. Our Democratic forefathers, many of whom shed blood on the picket lines or getting into polling places, demand it of us.

Steve Young wins Dem spot in General Election

Steve Young Wins Democratic Spot in General Election; Advances from Crowded Field for Vacant Congressional Seat

Young Positioned to Challenge in Traditionally Republican District

(IRVINE -- Oct. 4, 2005) -- Steve Young, a candidate in California's 48th District, led all Democrats in today's special election and will advance to the general election scheduled for December 6th. In a race marked by low turnout and conservative predictions, Young captured the Democratic vote in spite of heavy competition from more than a dozen candidates inside and out of the party.

"The results are in and I am excited to start the general election campaign from such a strong position," said Steve Young. "We ran a positive campaign and I'm proud of the work we've done and even more excited to begin working towards the December runoff. The fight is far from over and I intend on building off this success and making a winning campaign that will bring meaningful change to Washington, D.C."

CA-48th: Gearing up for the General Election

Steve Young Gears Up for Special Election

 Campaign Rides Momentum into Oct. 4 Primary with Additional Advisors Joining the Campaign

(IRVINE -- Sept. 30, 2005) -- The Steve Young for Congress campaign entered the final week before the October 4^th special election with the announcement of Lori Kreloff and Brad Chase joining the campaign as senior staff members. Kreloff, formerly a major donor fundraiser for the Democratic National Committee, will lead the campaign’s Washington DC based Political Action Committee fundraising efforts while Chase will serve as press secretary.

“The competition is heating up in advance of the primary and we’re bringing aboard the big guns to add depth to our campaign,” said Steve Young, Democratic candidate for California’s 48^th Congressional District. “John Campbell may be telling the media that he has the election in hand, but the race is far from over and my campaign is adding seasoned veterans such as Lori and Brad to add depth and expertise to our staff that will take the campaign to the next level and to Washington.”

Kreloff’s primary responsibility will be to create and foster relationships with Mid-Atlantic and National Political Action Committee donors and raise funds for the campaign. She previously worked at the DNC as California Finance Director and Mid-Atlantic Finance Director and is involved at a senior level for several major campaigns.  She graduated from the University of Illinois.

Chase will lead the campaign’s public relations efforts and serve as Young’s primary spokesperson. Previously, he was employed by Hill & Knowlton, a global public relations consultancy, in its Los Angeles office. He received bachelor’s degrees in government and philosophy from the University of Virginia and a master’s degree in strategic public relations from the University of Southern California.

Young is running in a special election on October 4th to fill the seat vacated by Former Rep. Christopher Cox. A run-off will be held on December 6th should no candidate from the field of 17 win a majority of the vote.