The Political Dogfight

Wes Clark's Opening Statement today House Armed Services Committee

 

Do yourself a favor and see the great  Wes Clark interview on CSpan this morning you will have access from their page.  The Big Dog

Opening Statement of General Wesley Clark
House Armed Services Committee Hearing
April 6, 2005

Mr. Chairman, Congressman Skelton, distinguished members of this Committee, thank you for the opportunity to appear before you today.   From moment one, this Committee has been strongly supportive of the men and women in uniform, and I want to commend you for that -- and thank you for the support that so many of you gave to me during my time in the military.   As a former soldier, I can't stress enough how important these deliberations are to our armed forces and military families stationed around the world -- and to the thousands of veterans I've met with over the past two years.  I have also heard from thousands of people over the internet who wish to express their gratitude for your efforts and concerns about the situation in Iraq. On their behalf and on behalf of my own family, I thank you.   

It is a privilege to appear today to present my thoughts on Iraq and our armed forces, to offer a brief retrospective on the mission there, to sketch out a successful way ahead, and to discuss the implications for the U.S. armed forces.

 

Hack: Virtual Soldiers Won't Cut It!

By David H. Hackworth
          
Like the British Empire a century ago, the sun never sets on President Bush's Pax Americana. He has globo-cops hunting down terrorists in every angry nook and corner of this troubled world while attempting to spread democracy along the way.
          
The big difference between the U.S. of A. circa 2005 and the mighty Brit Empire of yore is that the Brits fielded enough mud soldiers to control their vast holdings. That is, until the cost of their imperialism nearly bankrupted them, and an exhausted shell of a crumbling Britannia finally had to cede the globo-cop baton to us.
          
But current flash points and other potentially serious threats stretch all the way from the Middle East's Iraq, Syria and Iran to Asia's North Korea and Red China - more turf than we've patrolled since World War II. And meanwhile, we don't have enough grunts to maintain our forces at decent combat strength in Iraq and Afghanistan, let alone police the rest of Planet Earth.

Karl Rove's long quiet effort [Blue State Theory real?]

Karl Rove had a quiet long-term effort to politicize the 'Christian' [highly dislike the way that way is now framed] pulpits. This was this very long-term effort that lasted years and was accelerated in this election cycle. The results of that effort were pushed pubicly from the pulpits in the last two/three weeks of the campaign. It is my belief that the results were not counted in the polls.

A great story on the process and it's length [far beyond this election season] is at
the New York Times.

If you notice the polls didn't miss the final totals of the Kerry campaign by much: 2 or 3% one way or another. Yet it was that two or three percent that made the difference.

When the final totals are adjudicated in Ohio we'll find we only lost by a few hundred thousand not the millions W is claiming. [Get the final number from here when it's posted and remember it when a Republican is gloating!]

I mentioned in a DailyKos diary yesterday my view of the Fallacy of the Blue State Theory, and it's valuable for the readers here at DF04 to think about and understand,

Final Tally:Electoral Vote 2004: Kerry 252 Bush 279

Electoral Vote 2004: Kerry 252 Bush 279

Strong Kerry (95)
Weak Kerry (105)
Barely Kerry (52)
Exactly tied (0)
Barely Bush (30)
Weak Bush (66)
Strong Bush (183)
Needed to win: 270

Later today or tomorrow I will post a detailed analysis that debunks the concept of Blue States. We may have Blue Cities and Blue Counties...but we have only two Blue States. This has tremendous implications for policy formation and message creation and framing.
There is a brilliant graphic that illustrates the topic and I'm getting a copy of it before I write the column.

[UPDATE] :

We have to take a moment... and, by the way, who is The Big Dog?

Today I have few words. My heart is very heavy. We fought but we fought using some ammo that may have been the wrong type for this battle. [More on that at another time.] And Kerry is conceding in just a few moments.

What will happen now? I don't know. Will The Moral Coward take this as a mandate to make an even harder right hand turn with domestic and foreign policy? Or is W the political expert, in terms of instinct, that some believe?

If he is, will he take the hint that a 3% win isn't a mandate but evidence of a cultural split so deep that he could take a chance on creating a Cultural Civil War if he makes that wrong radical moves? Will he understand that the nation needs him to reach out and be the 'Uniter' he has claimed as his real identity?

Later I will post my new rules for WHO is eligible to be a party leader, a national party candidate or the Minority Leader in light of the last two elections and the rules for what we must do in EVERY Congressional District in 2006.

And who is The Big Dog? Stuart J. O'Neill of Orange County , Ca. As if it really matters.

If this blog has be useful to you, and we've grown from 100 visitors a day to over 1000 yesterday, then please email me and let me know that. My intent is to continue perhaps with a new title of Dogfight06 or 08. Please let me know if this blog has been of value to you.

Ky Senate still in play and we're leading!

Final Update 7:20PMPM Well, it looks Bunning caught the good Dr. M at the finish line. Not a likely winner for Dr. Mongairdo. Too bad

TBD

KY-Sen: nailbitter

Tue Nov 2nd, 2004 at 5:33PM PST

[Update]
We may pull this one off. With 81.3% reporting:
Mongiardo (D): 51.3
Bunning (R): 48.7

Amazing Hawaii Data-Fresh NOW

My contact in Hawaii just called and reported that she worked one precinct where in 2000 there had been a total of 128 registered voters and now there is 628! And turnout is already over 300% up from 2000.

Her son says major lines and people on Oahu. Big Island Kona the same I'm told.
Hawaii closes at 8PM PT. Easy for a call early tonight if the Exit Poll margins are great enough!

Anecdotal evidence is doing great. Only 20 minutes until the Eastern States start closing! Stay tuned.

Latest 'News"= Electoral Votes and Zogby Final Electoral Poll...real data by 7PM ET

Earlier the Big Dog told you to ignore Exit Polling as it is highly inaccurate. Now it is 5:30pm ET and the polling starts to mean something. Here's what we think we know.

Kerry is up in most battleground states and fighting step by step in Nevada, New Mexico and New Jersey. My Hawaiian contact is out at her assigned polling place on Maui as a poll watcher. So...I don't have any idea of turnout in Hawaii and no news reports. Throughout many states, turnout is at record levels with some minority precincts at 144% of anticipated turnout in Florida.

Things are looking good...but keep making the phone calls...keep working...don't stop!Networks and AP will start calling states based on complete exit polling for certain Eastern States at 7PM ET. They are not waiting for Hawaii to close! That's when we get REAL data. Hang tough!

JUST IN: Zogby's Final Poll: Kerry 311 Bush 231Remember Zogby does NOT have the best record...but boy can't we wish for this!
Keep working.

Today, after all the work, today is the day

Vote! Then GOTV! Then call your friends (more GOTV)!

And Rules for today and tonight's election watching:
1. Disregard ANY midday exit polls! They are only reflective of the people who have voted in the mid-day cycle,. The Democratic vote has traditionally been a late afternoon and evening vote. Ignore any leaked early polls. Ignore them!

2. Get any election news about Voter Turnout, Voter Suppression or Voter Election Challenges from reputable news organizations: MSNBC, CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC. Do not pay attention to the mass internet hysteria that The Big Dog predicts will hit several times throughout the day.

3. If you start to get down or tired, call an energetic friend or read a solid site like TalkingPointsMemo to keep your head on straight.

4. Hawaii doesn't close their polls until 1AM ET. Don't expect solid real results until then.

5. Attend your local Kerry or Dem Party Victory Party this evening an celebrate your work, your dedication and the amount of emotion that you have put into this election cycle. It has been historic.

My prediction? Tomorrow America will clearly have a new President-Elect and we start the walk towards a New Path in the United States. Work hard and enjoy the day. It's going to be one for the history books!

Four Decades of Imperial Hubris

Hack's Target

Four Decades of Imperial Hubris

by David H. Hackworth
11-01-04

In most of the wars we’ve fought, our leaders have understood our enemies and how to take them down. But in the current shootout – a continuation of the revolutionary fervor first ignited in Algeria in the 1960s, then fanned by the Iranian Revolution, a huge Jihad victory against the Soviets in Afghanistan, Israel’s humiliating withdrawal from Lebanon and its interminable fight in Palestine culminating in 9/11 and our retaliatory invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq – America’s leaders from both major parties and our military and intelligence establishments remain in deep denial and blindly continue to believe that because we’ve got the power, we shall overcome.

Ditto a large chunk of the American public that has sent me gigabytes of e-mail about how we should do a Goldwater on the bad guys and “bomb them back to the Stone Age” – when that's where most of our 1.3 billion potential Islamic opponents already are. If ignorance is bliss, America might have cornered the market on happiness.

But unless we get real and bend our brains around what motivates our enemy, we will never prevail against the increasing millions of polarized Muslims who are becoming more united with every explosion of smart bombs and every Yankee occupation boot stumping across their turf.