The Invisible Campaign Part 3: The Death Knell?

Today's reports of the move by my homestate, California, to move to February 5, 2008 brings all my previous points into really sharp focus. Does this move to February 5 really defeat the purpose of picking the best candidate? Does this put the person with the most money and a decent public performance truely in control?

Let's use Senator Joe Biden as an example of a Candidate that could be killed by the shift in Primary Dates.

He has just made an enormously effective and passionate speech on the floor of the Senate that should be the focus of his entire campaign and their fundraising efforts. I'm positive as a political staffer myself that it is the topic of every conversation they are having with potential contributors.  (The video of the speech, and if you didn't see it...it's a remarkable moment in 2007 politics, is right here for viewing but my points are don't revolve around that speech.)

The people the staff are talking with are responding, I'm equally sure, with concerns about Joe Biden having enough money to be competitive...and therefore slowing down his overall fundraising.

Joe Biden is a man of substance and has the ability to laugh at himself. Good qualities.   Can he raise enough money?

Now that California and the rest have screwed the system into a February 5 finish, can he raise the huge money necessary to compete? And assuming he can raise good money, if not the most money, where does he spend it? Keep reading for the key question!

In today's Orange County Register the point was made that for the cost of campaigning with paid media in California  a candidate can compete in 10 (!) other states.

So far Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Calif, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma and Utah are scheduling their primaries on February 5, 2008.

Considering February 5, 2008 are Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Caroline, Rhode Island,  Tennessee and Texas.

Results: 98 electoral votes ALREADY on February 5

Results: 212 Electoral Votes considering being scheduled on February. 5

total: 310 Electoral votes on one day.

Previous to February 5, 2008= 23

Total Electoral votes available by the end of February 5= 333

Total votes needed to win the Democratic nomination: 270

If you, (assume for the moment that you are the Candidate), have the choice, being a second tier candidate who has to allocate precious few resources, do you take the risk of potentially bankrupting your campaign trying to capture California and New York (the most expensive media in the US) with their total of 86 Electoral Votes?

Or do you go after the other 247 Electoral votes in States with more affordable TV and Radio?

If a campaign has the funds, the candidate can simply buy the media in the California and New York and spend their personal time in other states that are perhaps more in play. Can you imagine the polling being done daily as the Primaries start trying to determine where to allocate resources?

Personally I think this change in primaries nationwide could easily screw the pooch for anyone without the $150M warchest. This is likely to include Joe Biden, Wes Clark (if he gets in the game) and Bill Richardson. So how do they compete without having the huge sums to simply buy huge amounts of media?

I think it is possible that the innovative use of alternative media and an innovative exercise in Net tactics is essential to get the second/third tier candidate into the FREE media of the news shows etc.

I know this isn't being effectively done in any campaign. Some think they have discovered new ways but they really haven't. They are using a combination of traditional communication concepts and simply piping it through Youtube.

The concepts I've created depend on having an 'outside the box' mindset and a rejection of the traditional theories of political communication as they relate to the Net and The Press. These concepts also require a complete paradigm change in the tactics that a  campaign uses make their real newsmaking efforts.

Combine those innovative communication and press relations concepts with a innovative Net tactic at the ground level and a 'backrunner' might force his/her way into the media's airtime.

I wish I had a real 'in' to the Biden Campaign management. I think he could pull off my concepts of innovative communication. While I am not a Biden supporter, I think most of you know I'm a Wes Clark guy if he gets in the game (and he would be even effective with these tactics), I think Biden has the ability to communicate with the quality most needed in this 2008 Presidential campaign: Authenticity. Parts 1 and 2 discuss my thoughts on that subject.

So having used Joe Biden as an example, here's Joe Biden's history making speech.

Below the video is raw electoral vote data that you might want to save for your files.

Here's the raw data.

Raw Stats:

U.S. Electoral College 2008 - List Of States And Votes Total: 538; Majority Needed to Elect: 270
Alabama - 9 Alaska - 3 Arizona - 10 Arkansas - 6 California - 55 Colorado - 9 Connecticut - 7 Delaware - 3 District Of Columbia - 3 Florida - 27 Georgia - 15 Hawaii - 4 Idaho - 4 Illinois - 21 Indiana - 11 Iowa - 7 Kansas - 6 Kentucky - 8 Louisiana - 9 Maine - 4 Maryland - 10 Massachusetts - 12 Michigan - 17 Minnesota - 10 Mississippi - 6 Missouri - 11	Montana - 3 Nebraska - 5 Nevada - 5 New Hampshire - 4 New Jersey - 15 New Mexico - 5 New York - 31 North Carolina - 15 North Dakota - 3 Ohio - 20 Oklahoma - 7 Oregon - 7 Pennsylvania - 21 Rhode Island - 4 South Carolina - 8 South Dakota - 3 Tennessee - 11 Texas - 34 Utah - 5 Vermont - 3 Virginia - 13 Washington - 11 West Virginia - 5 Wisconsin - 10 Wyoming - 3