As a Blogger, I advocate a single active candidate for the the Special Election in the CA-48th, yet I have not advocated for any specific individual. We have had only one person who is actively putting together staff etc., Steve Young. And I have mini-profiled Steve Young in the past. I think he is a strong candidate.
The DCCC had a person they wanted to be a candidate, backed by Loretta Sanchez, and honestly, I think would have been a strong candidate too.The DCCC made their phone call this week. I spoke with that person at length on Wednesday right after Rahm.
She has now decided NOT to run. Period. That same decision was communicated to the DCCC Thursday night. There are mitigating personal circumstances that make that choice even more difficult than usual. And the right one.
Yet what happens during a Conference Call on Friday with the DCCC?
They suddenly had yet ANOTHER interested party! Mind you the Governor is going to proclaim the Election on Monday; the Orange County Registrar of Voters will have filing papers available on Monday late afternoon most likely and NOW they have another potential candate.
And, I'm told by a call participant, they won't inform anyone who it is! They won't even hint if the person is experienced or not.
Leave it up to the DCCC to do nothing for months then call one potential candidate, a good one, on Wednesday ( 5 days before filing begins) only to get turned down, then announce another mystery potential candidate 3 days before filing begins while there is already one person in the race gathering endorsements and working his butt off.
It's amazing. And we don't even know the mystery 'interested' candidate's identity.
In an amazing phone call from a staffer at DCCC, Steve Young was told that DCCC doesn't participate in the Primaries anyway and it appeared there was going to be one. They just don't get it!
In this unique case, Primary is an Open Primary that will be approximately 54 days long total. If we don't win the 50%+ 1 vote majority there we, as Democrats with a 38% registration disadvantage, have to duke it out with the Republicans in a real General Election.
My point is this: If we have two Democratic candidates that are really campaiging, such as they would in a normal primary, [forget the ghost candidate who will almost certainly file against everyone's wishes] we merely guarantee a General Election. That General Election is not is our best interests.
I still think a Democrat who runs in the Primary will be preceived as powerless, because of the registration disadvantage. Democrats in the 48th are always preceived as powerless and have been for decades. Let's not give them a reason to change their preceptions!
Most of the Republican attention will be spent on attacking each other to insure that they get the Nomination. They will WANT the General Election. They will, therefore, want to be the top-vote getter in their party. And that will be their goal...not beating up the lone Democrat in the field.
As my own lone opinion, backed up by nothing but my personal intuition, judgment and analysis created by participation since 1966, it is in our best interests to:
A. Field a single well-funded active candidate
B. Concentrate our Candidate's public speaking etc to Democratic or Democratic leaning groups
C. Create the best ground game ever seen (!) [And that means some changes in technique and language.]
D. Design the Primary Election Day GOTV beyond anyone's dreams
E. Leave the Republicans to the Republicans and beat them on Primary Election Day at the ballot box by simply putting more Democratic Voters and Independent Voters into the voting booths.
I believe it will be a low turnout election compared to the 60% that turned out for the 2008 Presidential Election. In that case The Democrats gathered 93,0000 votes with a 'ghost' candidate.
My point has been, and remains, what if we turn out a higher percentage of voters than the other side? We win. Period.
But what if the DCCC, looking for a traditional 'standup up and fight the Republican' strategy, throws another name who will actively campaign into the Primary ring? But if we have more than one serious Primary candidate for the CA-48th...it does not bode well for the District.
And what the hell is the DCCC doing even talking to someone the DAY before the filing period, THEN refusing to identify them even to Party officials?
If The DCCC doesn't understand the unusual dynamics of the CA-48th, it's because they have NEVER spoken with any of us who have done the metrics and created the strategy that can work and create victory. They don't know about the Grassroots or the Blogsphere or innovative ground techniques...because they've never asked!
If The DCCC introduces another Candidate, on the opening day of the filing period, at this point they will muddy the waters beyond comprehension and perhaps beyond salvation.
Now you have the facts as they stand, and my opinions...for whatever they may be worth. My real rant on the DCCC will have to wait until we see what they actually do.
